US President Donald Trump has publicly predicted an imminent deal to end the Iran war at least 38 times since March, according to CNN’s tally, with each claim followed by no final agreement.The pattern began on March 23, less than a month after US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump announced “major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement.” Iran denied any negotiations were taking place.Within days, Trump’s predictions grew more emphatic. On March 25, he said Iran wanted to “make a deal so badly.” On March 26, he claimed Iran was “begging to make a deal” . On March 30, he posted on Truth Social that “great progress has been made,” but warned if a deal did not happen shortly, the US would “blow up and completely obliterate all of their Electric Generating Plants”.
A ceasefire that wasn’t a deal
On April 7, Trump announced a ceasefire, saying the two sides were “very far along” but needed two weeks for “the Agreement to be finalized and consummated”. No final agreement followed.But Trump kept predicting. On April 15, he told Fox Business: “I view it as very close to over.” On April 16, he told reporters: “It’s looking very good that we’re gonna make a deal with Iran.” On April 17, across three separate appearances, he said Iran had “agreed to everything” and predicted a deal “in the next day or two”.By April 30, Iran was still “dying to make a deal” according to Trump. On May 7, he told reporters at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool that a deal “might not happen, but it could happen any day”.
‘We’re in the final throes’
A Fox News chief political analyst suggested Trump may be sending different messages to different audiences — trying to calm petroleum markets while maintaining a tough stance toward Tehran.On June 11, Trump announced he had cancelled planned strikes against Iran and claimed a “great settlement” had been reached. He told reporters in the Oval Office that a signing could take place “over the weekend in Europe” . Vice President JD Vance would represent the US, Trump said.But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said reports of an agreement were “speculative” and “nothing has been finalised” . He said the US had made “excessive demands” and added “new requests”.Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been mediating between the two sides, posted on social media that the “final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal” has been reached, adding he is working closely with both sides to finalize next steps.As of Friday, no deal has been signed. Trump’s latest claim, that an agreement could come “over the weekend or Monday”, would mark his 38th or 39th prediction if it also fails to materialise.
Insider trading suspicions
A BBC report shows how a consistent pattern of suspicious trading has accompanied Trump’s Iran war announcements, with massive bets placed in financial markets minutes before his market-moving statements became public.On March 9, traders placed huge bets on falling oil prices 47 minutes before Trump told CBS the war was “very complete.” When the news broke, oil plunged 25%. Those traders made millions.On March 23, $1.5 billion in S&P futures and $192 million in oil futures were traded 14 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social about a “total resolution” with Iran. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy called it “bigger than any futures purchases made at the time.”On June 11, $920 million in crude oil shorts were placed 70 minutes before an Axios report on a potential US-Iran deal. When oil prices fell 12%, those shorts gained $125 million.On prediction markets like Polymarket, six new accounts won $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran exactly on February 28 — the day they happened. Another user won $570,000 betting on Nicolas Maduro’s ouster hours before US special forces seized him.Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called it “treason in the futures market.” Democratic lawmakers have demanded investigations, but the CFTC has not confirmed any probes. A financial regulation expert said enforcement is difficult: even with clear evidence, “there is a strong chance that no one will be prosecuted.”
