Houthi rebels in Yemen are becoming less dependent on Iranian weapons after years of training and technical assistance from Tehran. This is allowing the group to assemble its own drones and missiles, posing a growing threat to Saudi Arabia as the US-Iran war strains regional air defences and depletes stocks of missile interceptors.The shift has become increasingly significant after Houthi attacks on Riyadh international airport and the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s defences. Weapons and regional experts say the group’s growing ability to produce its own weapons could make it harder to contain, even if Iranian supply routes are disrupted.
Iran’s strategy: Teach the Houthis to build weapons
Iran has supplied weapons, money and training to the Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, for more than a decade. Tehran has denied arming the group in violation of a United Nations arms embargo.However, according to a report by news agency Reuters, Iran has also helped the Houthis develop the skills needed to assemble their own weapons. This includes drones and missiles made using dual-use components, which can serve both civilian and military purposes.Andreas Krieg, a senior security studies lecturer at King’s College London, said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and members of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah initially helped the Houthis understand missile systems and how to operate them.“Former Yemeni military engineers and a growing generation of locally trained specialists have helped institutionalise these capabilities,” he said.“Tehran has not simply supplied the Houthis with weapons. It has helped create an indigenous military-industrial learning process that becomes progressively harder to dismantle, even if direct Iranian supply routes are disrupted.”The strategy was designed to ensure that the Houthis could continue developing their military capabilities even if they lost access to direct Iranian supplies.“The Revolutionary Guards were forward-looking. They looked at what happened if the Houthis couldn’t receive equipment or weapons directly (from Iran), or if these were seized by US-allied forces,” said Hamid Nikou, a former political advisor to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Nikou said the strategy included teaching the Houthis how to assemble dual-use parts to make drones and even ballistic missiles.“Iran has basically taught the Houthis how to fish,” Nikou said.Iranian analysts say this has made the Houthis one of Tehran’s most cost-effective and valuable military proxies.
Chinese components add to Houthi capabilities
The Houthis are also diversifying their sources of weapons components, reducing their reliance on equipment supplied directly by Iran.Conflict Armament Research said in a report this week that the group was attempting to manufacture advanced medium-range ballistic missiles using components shipped from China. Yemen’s internationally recognised government seized one such shipment.“China has emerged as a particularly important commercial source, while Iran continues to provide specialised military technology, technical expertise and components that are difficult to obtain commercially,” Krieg said.The development could complicate efforts to restrict the Houthis’ weapons programme. Intercepting shipments and disrupting supply routes may not be enough if the group can obtain components through commercial channels and assemble weapons locally.The Houthis have also reportedly explored the use of artificial intelligence to improve their weapons.Anthropic said last month that “a cell of threat actors based in northern Yemen” had used its Claude AI assistant to help develop software for a guided rocket, a planned ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and a missile variant incorporating a hypersonic glide vehicle.These reported efforts point to the group’s ambitions to expand its capabilities. They do not, by themselves, establish that all the weapons described have been successfully developed or deployed.
US-Iran war puts Saudi air defences under pressure
The Houthis’ expanding capabilities come as US allies in the Gulf face mounting pressure on their air defences.Since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, the United States has used large quantities of missile interceptors to protect its bases and allies, including Israel and Gulf countries. The depletion of these stocks has added to the challenges facing Saudi Arabia as it confronts the Houthi threat.Farzan Sabet, a Middle East expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Saudi Arabia’s air-defence network was not yet as sophisticated as those of Israel or Ukraine.“Saudi Arabia, in terms of the sophistication of the military and the development of an integrated air defence network, is not really yet at the level of either Israel or Ukraine, and it just has a very tough job to do,” he said.Saudi Arabia’s size also makes it harder to defend against aerial attacks than Israel or a US military base, Sabet added.The latest attacks have raised concerns about the kingdom’s ability to protect strategic infrastructure. They also threaten Saudi Arabia’s efforts to attract foreign investment and diversify its economy beyond oil.
Years of conflict have made the Houthis more capable
The Houthis’ growing military capabilities reflect years of conflict and adaptation.The group has fought Saudi-backed forces in Yemen since 2014. The civil war settled into a fragile ceasefire in 2022.After Israel’s assault on Gaza in 2023, which followed deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the Houthis began firing rockets at Israel and targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.The subsequent US-Iran war reignited the conflict in Yemen, by which time the group had gained further operational experience and diversified its supply chains.“They haven’t been sitting still,” Sabet said. “They were basically diversifying their supply chains… and as they gain operational experience, they’re able to make those weapons more sophisticated.”The Saudi-led military coalition fighting the Houthis has said it intercepted several missiles fired at Saudi cities and destroyed 127 Houthi weapons storage facilities and launch platforms.Coalition spokesperson Turki al-Maliki said the group had acquired advanced military technology with help from “regional actors”. This included ballistic missiles, drones and fast boats carrying explosives.The growing challenge for Saudi Arabia and its allies is that disrupting weapons shipments or destroying launch sites may not be sufficient to neutralise a group that is learning to manufacture and improve its own weapons.
