Safe sex just got more expensive: Condom prices set to rise 30% as Iran war disrupts supply
The world’s largest condom manufacturer, Malaysia’s Karex Bhd, plans to raise prices by 20 to 30 per cent — and potentially more — as the Iran war disrupts global supply chains and drives up raw material costs, its chief executive has said.Karex produces over 5 billion condoms annually, supplying leading brands such as Durex and Trojan, as well as Britain’s National Health Service and United Nations aid programmes. The company accounts for roughly one-fifth of global condom production.CEO Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters that the company has no choice but to pass on rising costs to customers, warning that a shortage of even a single component could halt manufacturing operations.“The situation is definitely very fragile, prices are expensive. We have no choice but to transfer the costs right now to the customers,” Goh said. “Some raw material prices have increased by 100 per cent,” he added, warning that jobs could also be at risk if disruptions continue.
The raw material crisis
Since the conflict began in late February, Karex has seen costs increase for nearly everything: from synthetic rubber and nitrile used in manufacturing condoms to packaging materials and lubricants such as aluminium foils and silicone oil.The disruption stems from a shortage of naphtha, a petroleum by-product and critical feedstock for synthetic materials, of which producers have far fewer reserves and no substitute. Asia gets more than half its naphtha from the Middle East . LSEG data shows that Asian naphtha refining margins have surged from $108 per tonne before the war to over $400 per tonne.According to ICIS, a commodities market intelligence platform, prices for plastic resins in Asia have risen as much as 59 per cent to record highs since late February.
Supply chain breakdown
Shipping disruptions have worsened the situation, with deliveries to Europe and the United States now taking nearly two months — double the usual time.“We’re seeing a lot more condoms actually sitting on vessels that have not arrived at their destination but are highly required,” Goh said, adding that many developing countries do not have enough stock because of delays.Karex is also seeing a surge in condom demand of about 30 per cent this year, as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many customers with lower stockpiles than usual.
The “everything crisis”
The condom shortage is part of a much larger crisis. As CNN has reported, the growing shortage of crude oil is threatening to morph into something worse: a shortage of nearly everything.“This spills into everything very, very quickly: beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics,” said Dan Martin, co-head of business intelligence at Dezan Shira & Associates. “It’s very fast transmission from oil and shipping disruption into petrochemicals and consumer goods”.In South Korea, people have been panic-buying trash bags. Taiwan has started a hotline for manufacturers that have run out of plastic. In Japan, fears are growing that patients with chronic kidney failure won’t be able to get treatment due to a lack of plastic medical tubes used in hemodialysis.An official at Nongshim, South Korea’s largest instant noodle manufacturer, said the company that supplies its plastic packaging currently has about one month’s worth of supply left. Indian media has reported that prices for plastic bottle caps have quadrupled since the war started.
Malaysia’s manufacturing crisis deepens
Karex joins a growing list of Malaysian manufacturers bracing for supply chain collapse. Malaysian rubber glove maker WRP Asia Pacific has announced it will begin winding down operations from April 15, citing “severe disruptions across global energy and petrochemical supply chains”.In a letter to customers, the company said it had faced “significant” increases in the cost of petrochemical-derived raw materials, alongside growing uncertainty over procurement timelines and suppliers increasingly demanding advance payments.Global glove manufacturers are particularly exposed because they rely on imports of nitrile latex, a synthetic rubber whose pricing is closely tied to global energy markets. Top Glove, the world’s largest glove maker, has raised prices and is encouraging customers to consider natural rubber gloves as an alternative. The price of butadiene, a core ingredient in disposable gloves, has surged nearly 70 per cent since the war began.CIMB Securities analyst Oong Chun Sung said glove manufacturers have raised prices by about 40 per cent on synthetic rubber gloves, to $29 per thousand pieces.
Public health time bomb
The condom shortage is already having real-world consequences, particularly in developing countries that rely on affordable condoms for HIV prevention.Kenya faces an annual condom demand of 400 million pieces. The government distributes about 200 million. The remaining 200 million has been filled by donors, with USAid as the main funder. That gap is now unfilled. Kenya’s condom programme requires Sh1.118 billion annually, yet there is a shortfall of Sh803 million, about 71.9 per cent of the total need.There are 17,854 condom distribution points across Kenya, and 84 per cent are located in bars, serving millions of Kenyans including sex workers, young people and low-income earners.The impact is already visible in people’s wallets. A pack of three condoms that sold for Sh150 three years ago now costs Sh600. For a sex worker earning Sh500 per client, a single pack now costs more than one session.The US Department of Health and Human Services’ 2027 budget, currently before Congress, proposes a $4.3 billion cut in global health spending and names Kenya directly, stating that the United States will no longer fund “the provision of condoms or contraception in Kenya”. “Not a single US dollar for condoms,” one health official told the Daily Nation.Health data is already pointing to a worrying trend. Between July 2025 and January 2026, Aids Healthcare Foundation Kenya screened 5,000 clients for sexually transmitted infections across three clinics. Of those tested, 300 were diagnosed with syphilis, 290 with gonorrhoea and 250 with chlamydia — a total of 840 cases over six months. About 90 per cent of those presenting with symptoms tested positive.“PrEP doesn’t prevent syphilis, chlamydia and gonorrhoea, but condoms do,” said Calsine Onditi of AHF Kenya.Terri Ford, AHF’s chief of global advocacy and policy, warned that HIV infections could rise if the trend is not reversed. “Without an immediate course correction, HIV will soon follow… Sustaining HIV prevention does not require new scientific innovations; it requires political will, sustained investment, and a renewed commitment to ensure condoms are free or affordable and widely available to those who need them most” .
North America as the unexpected winner
While Asia reels from the crisis, North American chemical producers have emerged as unexpected beneficiaries. Unlike their Asian counterparts reliant on Middle Eastern naphtha, North American producers use ethane derived from natural gas, and US natural gas supplies remain stable.Citigroup analyst Patrick Cunningham said polyethylene prices could rise about 12 cents per pound in the first half of 2026, with North American producers enjoying margin expansions of 4 to 8 cents per pound.
What’s next
Karex has enough supplies for the next few months and is looking to boost output to meet growing demand. But Goh warned that if the war persists, the situation could worsen dramatically.“We have no choice but to transfer the costs right now to the customers,” he said, adding that further price increases are possible if the conflict continues .From the consumer packaging crisis in Asia to the HIV prevention gap in Africa, the war in Iran is no longer just an energy crisis. It is a crisis of everything.
