NEW DELHI: Global uranium supply constraints would witness mining production drop by at least 50% by 2040 even as demand is set to double, according to the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report. This IAEA forecast on global uranium supply crunch is likely to affect India’s goal to increase its nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047.According to publication ‘Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand’, also known as the ‘Red Book’, jointly prepared by Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Agency, global uranium requirements are projected to increase to 90,045 tonnes of uranium (tU) in the low-case scenario and up to 1,42,631 tU in the high-case scenario by 2050, which represents a 50% to 144% increase from today’s requirements of approximately 60,000 tU.In contrast to future doubling of uranium requirements, uranium production from existing mines is forecast to decrease by at least 50% by 2040, the report said. “Conversion capacity is already insufficient and is projected to fall further behind demand through 2040, highlighting the need for substantial new investment and facility expansions. While global enrichment capacity currently exceeds demand, it remains unevenly distributed geographically,” it said. The report suggested new mines and expansion or life extension of existing mines, as well as reopening of idled mines, saying these steps will be required for assurance of supply in the future.Amid the gloomy scenario predicted by IAEA, India has initiated steps to increase nuclear power capacity from current 8,180 MW to 22,480 MW by 2031-32. The expansion includes construction and commissioning of 10 reactors, totalling 8,000 MW, across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Karnataka, and MP. Additionally, pre-project activities for 10 more reactors have commenced, with plans for progressive completion by 2031-32. Further, the Modi govt accorded in-principle approval to set up 6 x 1208 MW nuclear power plant in cooperation with the USA at Kovvada in Srikakulam district in Andhra Pradesh.India procures uranium from a combination of domestic mining and international suppliers: Domestic uranium is mined by Uranium Corporation of India Limited (UCIL) from deposits in Jharkhand, Andhra and Karnataka. It relies primarily on natural uranium for its pressurised heavy water reactors and is gradually shifting toward a closed fuel cycle using plutonium-fuelled fast breeder reactors (FBRs) and eventually thorium. To supplement limited domestic reserves and back its expansion targets under HANTI Act, 2025, India imports and has active supply arrangements with Kazakhstan, Russia, Canada, Australia (finalised arrangements under a nuclear cooperation deal), Uzbekistan and France. However, the IAEA prediction of uranium shortfall if drastic steps not taken could pinch India too.Over the next decade, nuclear fuel production will face increasing demand across all nuclear fuel-related segments due to increasing construction programmes in both established and embarking countries, necessitating the development of new fuel types, including for small modular reactors and advanced reactors, it said.
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“An increase in uranium production will require sustained investment with positive market conditions, and the discovery of new deposits will require sustained long-term exploration efforts, bearing in mind that the development of new uranium mines takes 10–15 years on average, from deposit discovery to the start of mining operations,” it said.In addition, significant and timely investment in exploration and mining/processing technology will be required, including cost-effective uranium extraction techniques for exploiting unconventional deposit types (for example uranium from phosphate and black shale deposits), some of which may become economic if there is a sustained increase in market prices, it suggested.
